Ethereum, cryptocurrency terbesar kedua di dunia, tengah menghadapi krisis kepercayaan yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya. Spot Ethereum ETF di AS mencatat net outflow sebesar $161 juta selama minggu yang berakhir 13 Februari 2026, menandai minggu keempat berturut-turut negative flows. Yang lebih mengkhawatirkan, major ETH holder mendeposit $543 juta (lebih dari 260.000 ETH) ke Binance dalam single day pada 15 Februari, sinyal kuat bahwa whale mempersiapkan massive selloff. Prediction markets kini memperkirakan ETH akan crash tambahan 18% dari harga saat ini sebesar $1.950 menuju $1.600 sebelum akhir Februari.
Minggu Keempat Outflow: Institusi Kehilangan Kepercayaan
Data dari SoSoValue mengungkap gambaran yang mengerikan untuk bull Ethereum. Selama minggu yang berakhir 13 Februari 2026, US spot Ethereum ETFs mencatat net outflows sekitar $161 juta. Ini termasuk penarikan single-day besar pada 11 Februari ($129,18 juta) dan 12 Februari ($113,10 juta), yang mendorong sebagian besar redemptions mingguan.
Meskipun outflows ini, daily reversal terjadi pada 13 Februari 2026, ketika funds secara kolektif melihat $10,26 juta net inflows, mengganggu dua hari berturut-turut selling. Dalam specific products, Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) melaporkan sekitar $6,18 juta net outflows pada 13 Februari 2026.
Net outflows sering menandakan weakening demand untuk regulated exposure ke Ethereum via ETFs, terutama ketika price action negatif. Namun, inflows lebih kecil atau pauses dalam outflow kadang-kadang dapat reflect short-term trading behavior daripada long-term trend.
Spot Ethereum ETFs selama minggu yang berakhir 13 Februari 2026, termasuk large single-day withdrawals sekitar $129 juta pada 11 Februari dan $113 juta pada 12 Februari, matters karena ETF flows semakin dilihat sebagai proxy untuk institutional demand.
Berbeda dengan retail trading activity, ETF allocations sering dibuat oleh asset managers, registered investment advisors, dan professional allocators lain yang cenderung beroperasi dengan investment horizons lebih panjang. Sustained outflows mungkin oleh karena itu signal reduction dalam institutional appetite untuk regulated Ethereum exposure, yang dapat weigh on long-term valuation jika trend persists.
John Murillo, Chief Business Officer dari B2BROKER, global fintech solutions provider untuk financial institutions, berpendapat bahwa ETF behavior Januari reflects tactical positioning daripada outright exit. "Mid-January outflows dari spot-ETH ETFs terlihat kurang seperti structural exit dan lebih seperti tactical rebalancing. Februari kemungkinan akan test apakah Ethereum's price lebih anchored oleh institutional spot allocation atau oleh derivatives momentum," dia sebutkan.
Whale Alert: $543 Juta Didump ke Binance
Jika ETF outflows tidak cukup worrying, on-chain data menunjukkan aktivitas whale yang sangat bearish. Pada 15 Februari 2026, known trader memindahkan lebih dari 260.000 ETH (sekitar $543 juta pada harga saat ini) ke exchange, menandakan potential selling pressure masif.
Dalam cryptocurrency markets, large deposits ke exchanges umumnya interpreted sebagai preparation untuk selling. Logikanya straightforward: jika whale berniat hold untuk long term, mereka akan keep coins dalam cold storage atau personal wallets. Memindahkan ke exchange menunjukkan intent untuk liquidate positions.
Transfer sebesar ini memiliki potential untuk significantly impact market liquidity dan price. Bahkan jika whale tidak dump seluruh posisi sekaligus, mere presence dari supply besar di exchange dapat suppress harga karena traders mengantisipasi potential selling.
Timing dari whale deposit ini particularly concerning mengingat ia datang di tengah already weak market conditions dan sustained ETF outflows. Ini suggests bahwa bahkan large holders yang typically have longer time horizons dan access ke better information mulai lose confidence dalam Ethereum's near-term prospects.
Ethereum: Worst Performer Among Major Cryptos di 2026
Angka-angka tidak berbohong, dan mereka paint picture yang sangat grim untuk Ethereum. Sejak 2026 dimulai, Ethereum turun 34,88%, menjadikannya worst performer di antara largest digital assets by market cap. Sebagai comparison, Bitcoin fell 23,47% dan XRP dropped 24,59% dalam periode yang sama.
Ini adalah reversal dramatic dari historical norms. Dalam crypto rallies 2018 dan 2021, Ethereum mulai close the gap dengan Bitcoin dalam crypto market dominance. Talk tentang "flippening" - point di mana Ethereum overtakes Bitcoin - adalah common. Tapi 2025 rally adalah different. Bitcoin soared, dan gap antara cryptocurrencies grew.
Pada satu point, Bitcoin accounted untuk lebih dari 60% dari crypto market, sementara Ethereum's share fell ke less than 8%. Institutional, corporate, dan government interest dalam Bitcoin increased its dominance dan, to some extent, caused it untuk decouple dari rest of market.
Ethereum's February 2026 performance particularly disappointing mengingat historical seasonal patterns. February has historically been strong month untuk Ethereum, posting median gains sekitar +15% since 2016. January typically posts median return near +32%. Namun tahun ini, Ethereum closing January down roughly 7% dan memasuki February dengan continued weakness.
Last time Ethereum entered February dalam similar position adalah 2025. That year, weakness extended into 32%-37% monthly decline. Market participants sekarang questioning apakah 2026 akan follow that path atau break away dari it.
Analytics team di B2BINPAY, all-in-one crypto ecosystem untuk businesses, cautions terhadap relying too heavily pada historical patterns. "Historical patterns are not something one should rely on blindly. Most of them exist for fairly obvious reasons," mereka said. Mereka juga added bahwa ETH currently lacks immediate growth catalysts. "But there is no real reason to assume that February must bring growth. Based on this, it makes little sense to expect February to preserve any 'historical' bullish significance," mereka highlighted.
Prediction Markets: 18% Crash Adalah Most Likely Scenario
Cryptocurrency prediction markets pada Polymarket memberikan glimpse fascinatin ke dalam market sentiment. Traders forecasting bahwa Ethereum's February downturn akan persist through rest of month dan bahwa ETH akan crash additional 18% dari press time price sebesar $1.950 menuju $1.600.
Expectation seperti itu is consistent dengan token's recent price movements, karena it adalah arguably biggest loser di antara largest digital assets by market cap. Namun, noteworthy bahwa prediction traders tidak particularly confident dalam estimate mereka untuk di mana ETH akan land di end of February.
Sementara true bahwa 18% drop ke $1.600 adalah most widely expected, odds dari actually hitting it adalah only at 29% at press time pada 11 Februari. Other relatively popular forecasts adalah $1.400 - dengan 14% odds - $1.200 - dengan 5% - $2.800 - dengan 5% - dan $3.000 - dengan odds of 3%.
Very wide spread dari prices deemed at least somewhat plausible untuk Ethereum shows degree of uncertainty prevalent dalam cryptocurrency market. Di satu hand, bloodbath yang started di late January convinced many traders dan analysts bahwa downward part dari standard digital assets cycle has begun in earnest dan that many coins dan tokens sekarang headed toward new lows.
Di other hand, ada strong sense bahwa situation dramatically different untuk sector in previous years due ke heightened institutional adoption dan acceptance, investment vehicles seperti spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) untuk largest cryptocurrencies, dan more favorable regulatory climate. Bullish factors seperti itu has led some experts dan traders untuk believe latest price crash adalah temporary dan that digital assets can still achieve new all-time highs later di 2026.
Technical Analysis: Support Levels yang Harus Diperhatikan
Dari technical perspective, Ethereum telah suffered notable damage. ETH price saat ini entering February 2026 di critical crossroads. Setelah losing nearly 7% in January, ETH closing month dalam clear contrast ke historical trend-nya.
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) dari earlier shows ini not confirmed bottom. Downside risk remains. First critical ETH price support sits near $2.690. Ini aligns dengan recent two-day support dan prior consolidation. Clean close below $2.690 would signal sellers regaining control. That opens downside toward $2.120.
Namun, dengan current price sekitar $1.950, Ethereum sudah broke below these support levels, menunjukkan technical structure has deteriorated significantly. Ethereum must reclaim $3.000 first untuk signal confidence returning. Price repeatedly failed here since December. Holding above $3.000 would signal confidence returning.
Next resistance stands near $3.340. Level ini has capped rallies since December 9. Untuk Ethereum untuk regain bullish momentum, it must first stabilize above $2.000 mark dan reclaim its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). While return ke all-time highs seems unlikely untuk rest of February 2026, current deleveraging process is healthy untuk long-term sustainability dari market.
50-day moving average, currently above price, falling, yang might resist future price movements. 200-day moving average has been falling since 16 Januari 2026, showing long-term weakness. Pada weekly timeframe, Ethereum appears bearish.
Fundamental Challenges: Mengapa Institusi Meninggalkan Ethereum?
Beyond technical weakness dan ETF outflows, Ethereum facing several fundamental challenges yang contributing ke underperformance-nya:
Scaling Issues Persist. Meskipun significant technical upgrades planned untuk 2026, termasuk Glamsterdam dan Hegota upgrades, Ethereum still struggles dengan high fees dan network congestion during periods dari high activity. Layer 2 solutions helping, tapi fragmentation dari liquidity across multiple L2s creating its own challenges.
Competition Intensifying. Solana, dengan superior transaction speeds dan lower costs, continuing untuk eat into Ethereum's market share. Bahkan dengan network outages dan controversies, Solana's developer ecosystem dan user base growing rapidly. Other L1s seperti Avalanche, Polygon, dan emerging chains juga vying untuk mind share dan capital.
Staking Yield Compression. Ethereum staking yields have compressed significantly as more ETH staked. Sementara ini good untuk network security, ia reduces investment appeal compared ke other opportunities di crypto dan TradFi. Dengan US Treasury yields masih attractive, institutional capital flowing ke perceived safer assets.
Regulatory Uncertainty. Meskipun regulatory clarity improving dalam certain jurisdictions, significant questions remain tentang how Ethereum dan particularly DeFi applications built on it akan regulated. SEC's shifting stances dan potential new regulations creating overhang.
Token Economics Concerns. Post-Merge, Ethereum supposed menjadi deflationary asset dengan burn mechanism. Namun, during periods dari low network activity, Ethereum can actually become inflationary. Ini creates uncertainty about long-term value proposition.
Bullish Case: Mengapa Beberapa Tetap Optimis
Meskipun overwhelming negative news, beberapa analysts dan investors remaining bullish pada Ethereum's long-term prospects:
Institutional Infrastructure Building. Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee, who is also chairman dari Ethereum treasury company Bitmine, outlined one of most optimistic institutional cases. Speaking pada CNBC, Lee projected ETH could reach $7.000 ke $9.000 by early 2026, dengan potential untuk climb toward $20.000 over longer timeframe as Wall Street accelerates its move toward blockchain-based infrastructure.
Lee's thesis centers pada Ethereum becoming settlement layer untuk tokenized securities, stablecoins, dan on-chain financial operations. Dia pointed ke institutions seperti BlackRock dan Robinhood, yang actively testing tokenized assets dan on-chain settlement systems, sebagai early indicators dari broader migration dari financial assets onto blockchain rails.
Treasury Companies Accumulating. BitMine Immersion Technologies, chaired by Lee, holds 4.066.062 ETH, making it largest Ethereum-focused corporate treasury. Sharplink Gaming ranks second, holding 797.704 ETH, valued approximately $2,33 miliar.
Sharplink CEO Joseph Chalom has projected bahwa Ethereum's total value locked (TVL) could increase tenfold during 2026, driven by growth dalam stablecoins, tokenized RWAs, dan expanding institutional use cases. Chalom expects stablecoin market untuk reach $500 miliar by December 2026, up dari roughly $316 miliar today, dengan Ethereum processing over half of that activity.
Technical Upgrades Pipeline. Ethereum's development accelerates dengan two major upgrades planned untuk 2026. Glamsterdam Upgrade (H1 2026) adalah performance-focused fork introducing parallel transaction processing dan higher gas limit. Hegota Upgrade (H2 2026) adalah unification upgrade focused pada implementing Verkle trees untuk better state management dan node efficiency.
Additionally, February 11 2026 marks pivotal date untuk Ethereum dengan first L1-zkEVM breakout call, indicating that development coordination already underway. Optional Execution Proofs memungkinkan validators use cryptographic proofs untuk validate blocks instead dari reexecuting each transaction themselves.
Whale Behavior: Mixed Signals
On-chain data tentang whale behavior sending mixed signals. At end of January 2025, whale holdings stood near 105,22 million ETH. By end of February, that figure had fallen to around 101,96 million ETH. That distribution coincided dengan Ethereum's 32% February collapse.
Last year, whales sold. This year, they are... well, it's complicated. While some whales clearly selling (witness $543 million deposit ke Binance), others may be accumulating at lower levels. Problem is distinguishing between short-term tactical moves dan longer-term positioning.
Inconsistent ETF flows tell more cautious story. Several strong inflow days were followed by major outflows. Late January saw withdrawals exceeding 70.000 ETH equivalents. This means ETFs have not joined rebound trade decisively.
Untuk now, institutional caution combined dengan whale selling creates difficult environment untuk sustained rally. Rebounds can occur, tapi sustainability limited without clear catalysts.
Strategi untuk Investor Indonesia
Bagi investor cryptocurrency Indonesia, current Ethereum situation presents both challenges dan opportunities:
Untuk Bulls: Jika you believe dalam long-term Ethereum thesis dan can handle volatility, current levels may present attractive accumulation opportunity. DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) strategy dapat help smooth out entry points. Focus on fundamental developments rather than daily price action.
Untuk Bears: Current technical weakness dan ETF outflows suggest more downside possible. Waiting untuk clearer signs dari bottom - seperti sustained ETF inflows, bullish on-chain metrics, atau technical reversal patterns - may be prudent before deploying significant capital.
Untuk Traders: Volatility creates opportunities untuk active traders. Key levels untuk watch: $1.900 support (already broken), $2.000 psychological level, dan $1.600 prediction market target. Volume dan momentum indicators critical untuk timing entries dan exits.
Risk Management: Apapun approach Anda, proper risk management essential. Don't invest money you can't afford untuk lose. Use stop losses. Diversify across multiple assets. Remember bahwa crypto markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Kesimpulan: Turning Point atau Beginning dari End?
Ethereum standing di critical juncture. Fourth consecutive week dari ETF outflows, massive whale deposit ke exchanges, worst performance among major cryptos, dan prediction markets forecasting further 18% decline paint very bearish picture untuk near term.
Namun, crypto markets notoriously unpredictable. What looks like crisis today could be exceptional buying opportunity in hindsight. Strong fundamental developments - institutional DeFi infrastructure, major technical upgrades, growing tokenization market - suggest Ethereum's long-term thesis remains intact.
Question untuk investors adalah whether current weakness adalah temporary correction dalam ongoing bull market atau early stages dari prolonged bear market. Answer will likely depend on broader macro factors: Fed policy, traditional market performance, regulatory developments, dan Bitcoin's trajectory.
Untuk now, caution warranted. Wait untuk clear signs dari stabilization sebelum deploying significant capital. If you already hold ETH, consider whether your investment thesis has changed atau whether this is just volatility you expected and can tolerate.
One thing certain: next few weeks critical untuk Ethereum. How it performs dalam face dari current headwinds akan say lot about its resilience dan potential untuk recovery. Untuk crypto's second-largest asset, stakes couldn't be higher.